Are Central AC and Furnace Replacement Costs Rising in California in 2026?

If you’ve priced out a central AC and furnace replacement lately, you’ve probably had the same reaction a lot of California homeowners have: “Is it just me, or does this feel more expensive than it used to be?”

So instead of leaning on anecdotes, we looked at recorded installation valuation data tied to completed full‑system replacements across California. These figures reflect installed project valuations associated with finished jobs—not “starting at” ranges, not list pricing, and not marketing estimates.

This article focuses on a common, straightforward scenario: replacing a typical ducted home’s central air conditioner and gas furnace as a complete system. We’ll keep it readable, but we won’t dodge the numbers.

When homeowners talk about replacing their heating and air conditioning system, they’re usually referring to a full swap of the core components that work together as one matched system.

• The gas furnace (the indoor heating unit that circulates air)
• The evaporator coil (installed near the furnace and connected to the AC)
• The outdoor condenser unit (the air conditioning unit outside)

These components are designed to operate together. Air is heated or cooled, then distributed through the home’s duct system to individual rooms through vents.

Most full-system replacements involve upgrading all three major pieces at the same time so that everything is properly matched for performance and efficiency. Homeowners often think of “the system” as everything from the equipment to the ducts. In this category, we’re talking about the equipment swap itself (furnace + coil + outdoor unit) installed to work with the home’s existing duct network.

In simple terms, this analysis looks at complete heating‑and‑cooling system replacements—not just replacing a furnace alone or swapping only an outdoor AC unit.

The valuations referenced here are tied to completed installations across California during 2025 and into early 2026. These are amounts associated with real projects—what homeowners actually ended up paying once the work was completed.

A quick note on methodology: we use medians rather than averages. That distinction matters. Averages can be skewed by unusually large, complex installs (or unusually low-cost edge cases). The median reflects the middle of the market and typically does a better job representing what a “typical” homeowner experienced.

Also, this article intentionally stays in one lane: central AC + gas furnace replacements in ducted homes. That’s because HVAC pricing varies a lot by project type. Mixing ductless systems, partial replacements, or ductwork-heavy projects into the same calculation would blur the picture and make the takeaways less useful.

Looking across California for the 2025 calendar year, the median valuation for full central AC and gas furnace replacements moved from:

• January 2025 median: $15,500
• December 2025 median: $16,420

That represents a 5.94% increase across the year.

Six percent isn’t dramatic in headline terms. But on a project in the $15,000–$17,000 range, it represents close to a thousand dollars of upward movement within a single year. That’s real money for most households, especially when the replacement decision often comes at an inconvenient time (a heatwave, a cold snap, or a system failure).

What’s also worth noticing: this shift wasn’t isolated to high-end installs.

The 25th percentile—essentially the lower boundary of what many homeowners paid for full replacements—increased from:

• January 2025 (25th percentile): $12,990
• December 2025 (25th percentile): $13,980.50

That’s a 7.63% increase at the price floor.

Why does the “floor” matter? Because it tells you something about baseline reality. If only premium installs were rising, you’d expect the median to move while the lower-end stays more stable. When the lower boundary rises too, it suggests that the general cost of “getting the job done” is drifting upward—even for simpler, more standard replacements.

In plain English: the market didn’t just get more expensive for homeowners choosing upgraded equipment or extra add-ons. The baseline price point moved, too.

Statewide numbers provide context, but HVAC pricing remains local. Housing stock, regional demand patterns, contractor capacity, and even local expectations about service can influence what pricing looks like in a particular city.

To get a sense of more recent movement, we compared one 120‑day window to the prior 120‑day period for the same full-system replacement category. The goal here isn’t to claim any single city tells the whole story. It’s to show how “upward pressure” can appear across different regions—even when the statewide trend looks like gradual drift.

Several markets showed measurable upward movement.

In the East Bay, Danville saw median valuations move from roughly $18,135 to $21,116—a 16.44% shift over the comparison window. Pleasant Hill showed a 14.23% increase in the same timeframe. San Ramon experienced a more moderate 5.81% rise.

In the Inland Empire region, Rialto moved from $17,000 to $17,999 (5.88%), while Palm Springs recorded a 1.86% increase.

Further north, Redding saw an 8.93% increase, and Gilroy moved up roughly 8.03%. Clovis experienced a 1.92% rise.

In the greater Sacramento region, Elk Grove showed a 1.17% increase, and Nevada City moved up about 1.21%. These aren’t meant to be “the definitive number” for any one city forever—they’re examples of how recent upward movement shows up in different kinds of markets (larger suburbs, smaller cities, inland regions, and Northern California communities).

Some increases are modest. Others are more pronounced. What’s consistent is that upward movement appears across different parts of the state rather than being isolated to one single metro area.

Unlike consumer goods that can jump around week-to-week, full HVAC system replacements usually move gradually. There are a few reasons for that:

• It’s a full installed project, not a commodity item. Equipment matters, but so does labor, scheduling, coordination, and follow-up support.
• Many companies plan pricing around seasons and capacity. When schedules tighten, costs often firm up; when schedules loosen, pricing may stabilize rather than collapse.
• Operational models differ. Some businesses run lean. Others operate with larger teams, more customer support, more training infrastructure, and more layers that have to be funded.
• Homes aren’t all the same. Even two “full replacements” can differ in layout, access, electrical requirements, refrigerant line routing, code-related details, and install time.

So when you see a steady drift, it’s usually a sign that the market—buyers and sellers together—is settling at a slightly higher level.

The data does not show runaway escalation statewide. It also does not show broad declines.

• Nearly 6% statewide movement across 2025.
• Over 7% movement at the lower end of the market.
• Recent windows showing continued upward pressure in multiple regions.

This pattern looks like gradual adjustment rather than volatility. It’s the kind of movement homeowners feel over time—especially if they’re comparing a replacement quote today to what a neighbor paid a year or two ago.

If you’re planning a central AC and gas furnace replacement in 2026, the takeaway isn’t “panic.” The takeaway is “plan with realistic expectations.”

1) Expect a steady market, not a bargain window. The statewide data shows a gradual upward drift across 2025. That doesn’t mean prices will jump every month. It does suggest that waiting for a broad, meaningful drop in installed costs is not a strategy the data supports.

2) Local context matters. A statewide median is a useful reference point, but your city can behave differently. Some markets are already higher to begin with. Some move faster. Some move slowly. The city examples above are there to illustrate that regional variation—not to claim every neighborhood will match those exact numbers.

3) Small percentages add up on big projects. A 5–8% move doesn’t sound huge until you apply it to a full replacement. On a $16,000 job, 6% is roughly $960. Over multiple years, that kind of drift can compound into a meaningful difference—especially for homeowners trying to time upgrades around other expenses.

4) The best urgency is planning, not pressure. If you’re replacing due to a breakdown, timing is forced. But if you’re replacing because the system is aging, inefficient, or increasingly unreliable, the data supports planning earlier rather than later—not because the market is exploding, but because it tends to ratchet upward over time.

Based on completed full central AC + gas furnace replacement valuations across California:

• The statewide median increased from $15,500 (Jan 2025) to $16,420 (Dec 2025), a +5.94% move.
• The lower end of the market rose +7.63% across 2025.
• Multiple regional markets showed upward movement in recent months (examples include Danville, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, Rialto, Redding, and others).

Central AC and furnace replacement costs in California are not “skyrocketing,” but they have been drifting upward in a measurable, consistent way. If you’re planning a replacement in 2026, the data suggests you’re operating in a stable market that tends to move gradually higher over time rather than swinging down.